Close

The Main Street Quarterly

 

Main Takeaways of the Q3 2026 edition

 

  • GDP expected to grow but at a slower pace through late 2026.

  •  Amid tariffs and rising cost pressures, business price-setting behaviour exceeds inflation target.

  •  Fuel cost pressures have become significantly more widespread among SMEs in 2026.

  •  New section on business entries and exits:  entrepreneurship falls as long-term confidence declines.

  • Job vacancy rate drops slightly at 2.6%.

For a quick overview, see our video

 

Canadian GDP expected to still grow but at a slower pace in Q3 and Q4 2026 

 

Economic forecasts based on the most recent monthly Business Barometer® data (September 2026)  point to continued GDP growth but at a more moderate pace, with increases of 2.0% in the third quarter and 1.4% in the fourth quarter, amid uncertainty surrounding trade with the United States. 

Retail sales  increased by 9.0% and 8.8% in the first two quarters and are expected to rise by 0.9% and 2.7% in the following two quarters, with higher energy costs potentially weighing on consumer spending. 

CPI inflation rose from 2.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 to 3.0% in the second quarter. It is expected to remain at 3.0% in the third quarter, then drop slightly to 2.9% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, inflation is expected to reach 2.1% year-over-year in the third quarter and 2.2% in the fourth quarter. Tensions in the Middle East and tariffs remain upside risks to inflation. 

After three consecutive quarters of decline, including a 5.0% contraction in the first quarter of 2026, private investment rebounded by 9.5% in the second quarter, recovering the losses recorded over that period. Growth is expected to continue over the following two quarters, with increases of 5.2% in the third quarter and 1.6% in the fourth quarter. Some firms may also bring forward investment spending in anticipation of potential tariff increases, although trade uncertainty could weigh on overall investment. 

Payroll employment  rose slightly in the first quarter of 2026, increasing by 0.3%, before growth accelerated to 1.9% in the second quarter. Estimates and forecasts point to continued gains of 1.6% in the third quarter and 1.0% in the fourth quarter. 

 

These are the recent results from The Main Street Quarterly, CFIB’s economic publication. CFIB and consulting firm AppEco have partnered to develop early short-term economic forecasts of some key macroeconomic indicators, leveraging the timeliness of CFIB’s Your Business Outlook survey, the same survey used to create CFIB’s Monthly Business Barometer®.

In this edition, we present two ‘In Focus’ sections: one covers tariffs and business price-setting behaviour, while the other special analysis focuses on rising fuel costs.  

We added a new section which covers business dynamics, more specifically - the link between net business entries and long term optimism. 

The Main Street Quarterly also contains CFIB’s latest estimates of private sector job vacancies and an interactive page

Next release will be around the mid January 2027.  For the media release, click here.

Related Documents

Full Report

Forecasts

Job Vacancies 

In Focus

 NEW   Enterprise Pulse

 

Sectoral Profile

Methodology
Topics in this Article:

Stay Informed

Receive the latest research and insights about small and medium enterprises in Canada.

Subscribe

Other Articles you might like

Retirement and Business Succession

Getting the transition right: Survey results on small business succession planning

November 28, 2018
Read More
Retirement and Business Succession

Succession Tsunami: Preparing for a decade of small business transitions in Canada

January 10, 2023
Read More
Retirement and Business Succession

Infographic: Small Businesses Retirement Plans

April 15, 2021
Read More
See all