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The Main Street Quarterly, 2024 Q4

Canadian economy to see stronger than anticipated growth in Q4 2024 and moderate growth in Q1 2025

Economic forecasts based on the most recent monthly Business Barometer® data indicate that GDP growth jumped to 3.2% in 2024 Q4, supported by a strong performance from the business sector in September and October. Growth should moderate in 2025 Q1 but remain healthy at 2.5%.

Retail sales surpassed expectations in 2024 Q3, growing by 4.4% in nominal terms. This strength spilled over in Q4 as the current estimate sits at 6.2%, supported by robust growth in September and October. However, this is partly due to price increases, with the volume of sales being almost flat in October. For the start of 2025, retail sales growth is forecast at 1.7%, a relatively slow pace by historical standards. 

CPI inflation declined significantly in Q3, as expected, and should stabilize around the Bank of Canada's target of 2% year-over-year. With the policy rate in - or closer to - the neutral zone, businesses and consumers should expect a more modest path for rate cuts in 2025.

Private investment rebounded in Q4, and the pace is poised to accelerate in 2025 after a disappointing performance in 2024. Still, the level of private investment is currently about at the same level as it was a year ago.

Payroll employment growth continued to weaken in Q4, posting a mere 0.1% gain. A rebound is nonetheless expected in 2025 Q1, with growth forecast at 2.0% for the quarter.

Those are the recent results from The Main Street Quarterly, CFIB’s economic publication. CFIB and consulting firm AppEco have partnered to develop early short-term economic forecasts of some key macroeconomic indicators, leveraging the timeliness of CFIB’s Your Business Outlook survey, the same survey used to create CFIB’s Monthly Business Barometer®.

The Main Street Quarterly also contains CFIB’s latest estimates of private sector job vacancies and a NEW interactive page. The ‘In Focus’ section, which covers a specific topic each quarter, focuses currently on the challenges faced currently by firms trading internationally.  

This edition shows a deeper look at the financial activities, and professional and business services - their footprint on the economy, and their fitness.

Next release will be mid April 2025.  

 

Related Documents

Full Report

Forecasts

Job Vacancies 

In Focus

Sectoral Profile

Methodology

 
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