Monthly Business Barometer®

October 2024 Results

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained unchanged in October at 55.8. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped about two points to 48.3. Long-term confidence has remained in the mid-50s over the past six months, indicating some stability in the economic climate. Short-term optimism, however, has fluctuated between 47 and 52 since the start of the year, with this month proving no exception.     

The current state of businesses has been gradually and slowly improving, yet it is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

Provincial picture

Most provinces have experienced only minor shifts in optimism, with Newfoundland and Labrador marking the most notable decrease. The Maritime provinces lead in confidence, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan report the lowest levels of optimism. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the most confident overall, are well above their historical averages, while Alberta sits just one point above its own. On the other end of the spectrum, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the farthest below their historical averages.    

Sectoral picture

Sectoral indices for long-term confidence vary widely. The four most optimistic industries—finance and insurance; information, arts, and recreation; professional services; and health and education—have indices above 60, though still slightly below their historical averages. Most other sectors are in the 50s range, with agriculture notably lower at 43.5, a full 10 points below its historical reading. 
 

Inflation indicators

The average price increase indicator edged up slightly to 2.5, while the planned average wage increase for the next 12 months rose modestly to 2.7.    
    

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans remain modest but are trending more closely with historical patterns this month. 

The main cost constraints on business growth are wage costs (71%), insurance (70%), and tax and regulatory costs (69%). Concern about insufficient demand continue at a historical high outside of the pandemic, with 53% of businesses affected. This indicates that, while small business confidence is steady, it remains modest by historical standards.
 

Methodology

These results are based on 516 responses received from October 2 to 22 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.3 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance. Provincial results are based on 3-months moving averages, except for PEI and NL which are based on 12-months moving averages. Sectoral results, except retail, are based on 3-months moving averages. Therefore the provincial and sectoral charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate Canada data. 

The next Business Barometer will be released on November 28, 2024.

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, Retrospective. 

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist