Monthly Business Barometer®

November 2024 Results

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, increased by almost four points to 59.7. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also rose slightly to 51.4. This marks the highest long-term confidence level since mid-2022, approaching the historical average of 60.0. Short-term optimism has experienced minor fluctuations over the past six months, currently resting just below its historical average of 54.0.     

The current state of business health has improved in December.  

Provincial picture

Most provinces have seen gains in confidence, mirroring the national trend. Although New Brunswick experienced a decline of several points, it remains just below its historical average and ranks relatively high in overall optimism (4^th place). Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and Newfoundland and Labrador showed little change in November.

Sectoral overview

The sectoral landscape follows a similar pattern, with most industries showing an increase in optimism. However, sectors such as construction, personal services, information, arts, and recreation have remained largely unchanged, while the health and education sector saw a slight decline. Excluding agriculture (49.3), long-term optimism across most sectors ranges from the mid-50s to the 70s, indicating a broader economic recovery.

Inflation indicators

The average price increase indicator remained steady at 2.5, while the average wage increase slightly decreased, also settling at 2.5. For more information on price and wage plans, the distribution of the average increase and comparison with past periods, click here. 
    

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans remain more modest than usual at this time of the year.   

Key cost constraints on business growth include insurance (71%), tax and regulatory expenses (67%), and wage costs (64%). Concern over insufficient demand (49%) has slightly decreased from its peak but remains the primary barrier to business and production growth.
 

Methodology

These results are based on 872 responses received from November 5 to 13 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.3 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance. Provincial results are based on 3-months moving averages, except for PEI and NL which are based on 12-months moving averages. Sectoral results, except retail, are based on 3-months moving averages. Therefore the provincial and sectoral charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate Canada data. 

The next Business Barometer will be released before December 25, 2024.

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, Retrospective. This information will be updated at the end of December with 2024 data. 

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist