Navigating uncertainty: Insights on the impact of U.S.-Canada tariffs

Canadian small businesses are navigating an increasingly uncertain landscape due to U.S.-Canada trade tensions. To understand these challenges, CFIB conducted a survey of small business owners, capturing their experiences and concerns. The preliminary results from over 2,200 small business owners highlight the significant pressure businesses are under and the steps they are taking to adapt.

Key survey findings:

Heavy dependence on the U.S. market

• More than one in four trading businesses make over half of their goods purchases from U.S. suppliers.
• One in three generate over half of their sales in the U.S.
• This strong reliance leaves businesses highly vulnerable to trade disruptions and rising costs.

Widespread uncertainty and limited preparedness

• Over half of businesses report being unprepared to manage the impact of new tariffs.
• Many face financial strain, operational uncertainty, and difficult decisions about the future.

Cost increases and strategic shifts

• Businesses are already feeling the effects, with rising costs and declining demand pushing them to:
  • Seek new suppliers,
  • Scale back expansion plans,
  • Reduce staff.

Adjustments take time

• 30% of importers believe they can pivot within six months.
• However, 50% of exporters expect it will take much longer to adapt to new markets and stabilize their operations.

Support for government action, but more help needed

• 75% of business owners support retaliatory tariffs, but also want additional measures implemented including:
  • Tax relief,
  • Buy-local programs,
  • Removal of interprovincial trade barriers.

Dive deeper into the numbers

Explore our interactive dashboard to delve deeper into our survey. You can filter by province, sector, business size, and more. You can also download the accompanying presentation deck for a detailed summary of the survey’s key takeaways.

Survey methodology

Title: Survey on the impact of U.S.-Canada tariff situation on businesses
Status: Preliminary results
Active Dates: Feb. 6 - Feb. 11, 2025
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 2,236 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: ±2.07%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.

Marvin Cruz

Director of Research