Impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war on businesses

CFIB is examining the impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war on small businesses through insights gathered directly from its members via surveys. Based on nearly 3,000 responses collected in March 2025, the following highlights their challenges, responses, and the broader effects on operations, providing a clear picture of how businesses are managing these pressures.

March 2025 key survey findings:

Widespread Business Disruption Due to the Trade War

• Four in five businesses report being impacted by the U.S.-Canada trade war, citing rising costs, a weaker Canadian dollar, lower demand, and pricing difficulties.
• Business owners are particularly concerned about economic uncertainty (including inflation), rising operational costs, pricing challenges, and cash flow issues. 

Businesses are Shifting Focus to Domestic and Non-U.S. Markets

• Many SMEs are reducing U.S. investments, shifting to Canadian suppliers and markets, promoting Canadian-made products, and exploring international alternatives to mitigate risks and sustain operations. 
• However, only three in 10 businesses are confident that their actions will help offset the impact of the trade war.

High Uncertainty, Stress, and Diminished Trust in the U.S. as a Trading Partner

•  The unpredictable nature of tariffs has made business planning difficult, with many owners supporting Canada’s retaliatory tariffs but finding the trade war increasingly stressful to navigate.
• Additionally, half of SMEs do not consider the U.S. a reliable trading partner. 

Navigating Trade Compliance and Seeking Support

• While most U.S. exporters have CUSMA-compliant goods, 30% remain unsure about their compliance. Many businesses seek government support in handling paperwork. 
• Nearly a third of exporters use the de minimis rule to export goods to the U.S. 

Dive deeper into the numbers

Explore our interactive dashboard to delve deeper into our survey. You can filter by province, sector, business size, and more. You can also download the accompanying presentation deck for a detailed summary of the survey’s key takeaways.

Survey methodology

Title: Survey on the impact of U.S.-Canada trade war
Status: Preliminary results
Active Dates: Mar. 13 - Mar. 19, 2025
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 2,957 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: ±1.8%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.

Marvin Cruz

Director of Research