CFIB is examining the impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war on small businesses through insights gathered directly from its members via surveys. This report highlights their challenges, responses, and the broader effects on operations, providing a clear picture of how businesses are managing these pressures.
Key survey findings:
Small business confidence drops to all-time low as U.S.-Canada trade war ramps up
- The Business Barometer® hits a record low of 25.0 in March, reflecting the steepest confidence drop since the 2020 pandemic.
- Confidence dropped across all sectors, with agriculture among the hardest hit by U.S. and additional Chinese tariffs.
- Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec showed the weakest optimism among provinces.
Widespread Business Disruption Due to the Trade War
- Four in five businesses report being impacted by the U.S.-Canada trade war, citing rising costs, a weaker Canadian dollar, lower demand, and pricing difficulties.
- Business owners are particularly concerned about economic uncertainty (including inflation), rising operational costs, pricing challenges, and cash flow issues.
Businesses are Shifting Focus to Domestic and Non-U.S. Markets
- Many SMEs are reducing U.S. investments, shifting to Canadian suppliers and markets, promoting Canadian-made products, and exploring international alternatives to mitigate risks and sustain operations.
High Uncertainty, Stress, and Diminished Trust in the U.S. as a Trading Partner
- The unpredictable nature of tariffs has made business planning difficult, with many owners supporting Canada’s retaliatory tariffs but finding the trade war increasingly stressful to navigate.
- Additionally, half of SMEs do not consider the U.S. a reliable trading partner.
Navigating Trade Compliance and Seeking Support
- While most U.S. exporters have CUSMA-compliant goods, 30% remain unsure about their compliance. Many businesses seek government support in handling paperwork.
Dive deeper into the numbers
Explore our interactive dashboard to delve deeper into our survey. You can filter by province, sector, business size, and more. You can also download the accompanying presentation deck for a detailed summary of the survey’s key takeaways.
Survey methodology
Title: Survey on the impact of U.S.-Canada trade war
Status: Preliminary results
Active Dates: Mar. 13 - Mar. 19, 2025
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 2,957 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: ±1.8%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.
Marvin Cruz
Director of Research
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